Estimating 70.3 Triathlon Time from Olympic Triathlon Time

Setting goals can be difficult when moving to a new race distance. I recently read an article which had some example calculations for setting a half-ironman goals based on Olympic distance results, and I decided to run some regressions to see what equations I could come up with based on actual race data.

I found two races, an Olympic triathlon and a 70.3, that were reasonably close to Chicago and about one month apart, and I ran a computer script to identify athletes who competed in both.  I then ran some regressions to estimate the expected 70.3 times from the Olympic times.

The Races to Compare

ET Lake Zurich Olympic Triathlon
July 12, 2015
Swim: 1500m
Bike: 24.9 miles
Run: 6.2 Miles
Finishers: 433 (Age Group Category)

Ironman 70.3 Steelhead
August 9th , 2015
Swim: 1.2 miles
Bike: 56 miles
Run: 13.1 miles
Finishers: 2043

In comparing the results of these races, I was able to identify 57 athletes (one was omitted from final analysis) who competed the "Age Group" category in both races.

Regression Analysis

I ran some simple regressions using the results for the athletes who completed both races.  The Olympic splits were used as the independent variable, and the Half Ironman splits were used as the dependent variable.  Basically, each regression provides an equation to calculated the expected Half Ironman distance time based on the Olympic distance time.

All times in the equations and plots are in minutes!

Swim Regression

The "residual standard error" of this regression is about 2 minutes, so, roughly speaking, about 68% of swim results fall within +/- 2 minutes of the estimate provided by the equation and 95% of results fall within +/- 4 minutes (two times the standard error) of the estimate.

Bike Regression

The residual standard error for the bike time estimate is about 10 minutes.

Run Regression

The residual standard error for the run time estimate is about 12 minutes.

Overall Regression

The residual standard error for the overall time estimate is about 18 minutes.

Conclusion

These results ended up matching fairly well with the example calculations in the article noted earlier. Of course, in practice, there are many additional factors which could affect the results when applying these equations to other Olympic and Half-Ironman events, so, use with caution! I may try to find some other pairs of events to check how similar the estimates turn out to be.  I'd also like to run some similar regressions to compare half-ironman and full ironman times.

One other note, I did run some multiple regressions using the swim, bike, and run from the Olympic to estimate the Half Ironman overall time rather than just directly estimating one overall time from the other.  I expected this might give a better result since the individual components don't all scale by the same amount between the two events.  However, the result was only slightly better than the simple regression equation I posted above, so I opted to stick with the simpler model.

Lake Zurich Olympic Triathlon 2016 Race Report

This past weekend was the ET Lake Zurich Triathlon in Lake Zurich, Illinois. This was my first attempt at the Olympic distance, and I've created a report with some stats to evaluate my race. The PDF is available here. It includes all the tables and graphs below plus some additional maps, plots, and stats.

As with the Twin Lakes race, if anyone else who did the Lake Zurich race (Sprint or Olympic) wants a similar report with their own data, just email me at camontgom[at]gmail[dot]com, and I'll generate it and send it to you.

My Results

Official Results: http://edge.raceresults360.com/rr360/race/eFqyb/#/results::1468360337059

Performance by Race Segment

Swim

The 1500m swim course was a counter-clockwise triangle. I thought I paced the swim well considering it was my first time racing this distance.  I did veer off in the wrong direction a couple times, so I know my open water sighting and navigation still need some work.  I think I could improve the swim by a minute or more with some better open water skills.

Bike

The bike course was a two loop course which was mostly closed to other traffic. I thought it was relatively flat and fast.

As the bar charts above show, the bike is a big weakness for me. I think the bike leg of this race went ok given my current cycling fitness, but this is an area I need to work on for next year. If I can get my bike up to the level of my swim and run, it will significantly improve my overall finish.

Run

The 10k run was two loops around Lake Zurich, and the temperature was hot and humid!  I was hoping to maintain a sub 7 min mile pace, but couldn't quite do it. I ended up walking through the last couple water stops, so I could get more water down and keep myself hydrated. All things considered, I'm happy with my run performance.

Transitions

I got a bit disoriented coming into T2, and I wasn't initially able to find my stuff. I need to make better note of my exact location in the future, and maybe get a more colorful bag or mat.

Play by Play Graphs

These plots show how my standing evolved throughout the race.  I've also included the standing of the overall winner and the winner of my age group.  The first plot shows the time gap and the second plot shows the position gap.  

Obviously, I dropped lost a in terms of both time and position during the bike leg, but I was able to make up a bit of ground on the run.

Summary

The Lake Zurich Triathlon was a great race, and I think I learned a lot about what I need to focus on to come back faster next year.